Sunday, May 27, 2007

Historical Storage Prices - Raw Data

These are the raw data I collected from some Australian PC magazines from 2002-2007.



There are problems with the data:

- these are not 'best retail price' - just what I could find advertised

- inconsistent markup and discount schedule. Couldn't find a single advertiser.

- not same-same. RAM was DDR 3200, then PC133

- Disks. Ignored cache size, and SATA.

- all drives assumed to be 7200rpm

- didn't collect data on 2.5" drives and SCSI/fast drives.





RAM



YearSize32641282565121024
2002512$117$238$510
2003512$51$96$202
2004512$149
20051024$168$189
20061024$135
20071024$159




Flash

YearSize3264128256512102420484096819216384
2002256$53$87$147$305
2003512$63$109$187$350
20041024$39$49$75$129$200$400
20051024$40$60$90$158
20062048$55$95$175
20074096$25$45$69$99
MSY.COM$$15$15$25$45$92$177
$/Gb301512.511.2511.511.0625




Disk

YearSize406080120160250320400500750
2002120$205$275$375$375
2003160$165$190$220
2004250$95$115$155$215
2005320$80$90$129$135$206
2006500$75$109$155
2007750$86$100$133$133$149$186$345




DVD - 50 pieces

YearSize4.7 Gb
2002$135 (guess)
2003$90
2004$60
2005$40
20068x$40
200716x$35




RAM

YearBest $/GbYr/Yr Ratio
20029362.4375
20033841.2886
20042981.5767
20051891.4000
20061350.8491
2007159
Avg1.510373357




Flash

YearBest $/GbYr/Yr Ratio
200211761.68
20037001.75
20044002.53164557
20051581.805714286
200687.53.535353535
200724.752.237288136
Avg2.260542678




Disk

YearBest $/GbYr/Yr Ratio
20023.1251.136363636
20032.752.129032258
20041.2916666671.567556634
20050.8241.329032258
20060.621.666666667
20070.372
Avg1.565730291




DVD

YearBest $/GbYr/Yr Ratio
20020.5744680851.5
20030.3829787231.5
20040.2553191491.5
20050.1702127661
20060.1702127661.142857143
20070.14893617
Avg1.328571429


Summary

The Yr/Yr ratios are used for forward projections.

The 'Est Flash' column uses the current 'best price' (MSY) for flash memory and a Yr/Yr ratio of 3.25.

Flash memory is now very much cheaper than RAM - forward projections not done.



YearRAM $/GbFlash $/GbEst Flash $/GbDisk$/GbDVD $/GbMax flashMax Disk
2002936.001176.001176.003.130.57256120
2003384.00700.00700.002.750.38512160
2004298.00400.00400.001.290.261024250
2005189.00158.00158.000.820.171024320
2006135.0087.5087.500.620.172048500
2007159.0024.7511.060.370.154096750
Yr/Yr ratio2.263.251.571.33
200810.953.400.240.11
20094.841.050.150.08
20102.140.320.100.06
20110.950.100.060.05
20120.420.030.040.04

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Blogging Tools

Google's 'Blogger' is cheap and cheerful and a reasonable way to get started... But it doesn't work well for me in a number of ways.
  • 'Safari' on Mac isn't well supported
  • The edit window is very small
  • I can't compose off-line and upload previous work simply
  • My articles aren't stored on my computer making it easy for me to re-use and organise them.
  • The dinky little input/edit window isn't resizable
  • Checking final layout is painful - flipping in and out of 'preview' mode
  • Using Blogger and it's AJAX interface kicks up Safari's memory use - and kills my machine


So I went searching for some tools. Their are Mac clients that look good - but it's pay, pay, pay all the way on Mac :-)

Downloaded 'BloGTK' - it might work in the X-11 environment, but that uses too much memory. I 'only' have 512Mb - which once upon a time would've seemed unlimited.

So I found 'flock'. It's a modified Firefox browser which understands blogging and actually has resizable windows and stores new material on my disk... But it doesn't allow me to import what I've already written. And the publish interface is incredibly annoying if you editing/updating.

And there's a Firefox addon 'Firescribe' (formerly Performancing). It does some stuff reasonably well. Not sure about saving posts locally.

Still searching for tools I can work with ;-)

Friday, May 11, 2007

News-May-11

Microsoft Naysayer bandwagon gets crowded: http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=4820

Sarah Friar of Goldman Sachs:
It's over after Vista.
Microsoft needs markets that can move the revenue needle.
Microsoft will be hurt by Linux, Apple and software as a service.
Microsoft can't be nimble enough to compete with Google.
Microsoft's messaging stinks. [what's "Live"?]

"It all seems a bit premature. Sure Google may be sexier–just ask the Microsoft employees that are defecting and burning bridges on the way out–but can you really say a company with $28.8 billion in cash is on the downswing? I can't."
[http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=380]
-> ROE is 35+%. Should be able to repeat that
-> $17B 2006/7 spent on share buy-backs => propping up the share price



Chunks: hidden key to RAID Perf. http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=130
* Cache
* Striping
* Chunk Size [size of stripe on each drive]

Web DNA - Attributor: http://blogs.zdnet.com/micro-markets/?p=1321
-> Copyright Control, Monetisation On-line

Typical Linux Desktop User
http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=397
-> http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS9755856281.html

2008 Year of Mobile Linux? http://blogs.zdnet.com/mobile-gadgeteer/?p=359

RedHat takes OLPC knowledge corporate: (one Laptop per child) Global Desktop http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=5022

New Rules for Software VC. http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/editorial.php?id=132&page=4

Here is a list of must-haves to “jump start a startup” today and make it a candidate for venture investing.
* Begin with a first-class, seasoned management team

* Find a market undergoing demand growth where some form of disruption is creating a space for a new business

* Buy the components of the business – technology, distribution, customer base - that you can; only build what you have to (which usually does include building innovative technology

The Enterprise Software “Threatdown” http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/editorial.php?id=131 [Top 10 threats]

1. Buyer Ennui
2. Looming Skills Shortage
3. Software Security
4. Usability
5. India’s IT Services Firms
6. Private Equity Plays
7. New ERP Challengers
8. The On-Demand Model
9. Mobile
10. Software Appliances

SandHill: The State of the Software Industry – 2007
http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/editorial_print.php?id=133
Innovation Accelerating as a Top Priority
Internal Funding is Healthy -> revenue growing 9-13%
+ Margins are equally healthy. Megavendors (>$10B Rev) margins 35-40% EBITDA.
+ Margins rest 12-18%
+ software share of the customers’ IT budget will continue to increase
++ 2006: 29.6% expected 35.7% in 2009
External Funding Driven by Private Equity
+ Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) 26% in VC investment
Implications for Software Vendors and Customers
+ Customers: Customers have a paradox in front of them – how can a company that is increasingly spending their budget with the largest software vendors ensure they get access to smaller vendors who are driving innovation?
+ Vendors: Software vendors need to adapt to the bottom-up and center-out diffusion model within this innovation wave.



Sand Hill 30 - The stocks driving the next generation of software and services.
http://www.sandhill.com/finance/sandhill_index.php

Megavendors
Pure-play software vendors whose every move shakes the industry.
HP
IBM
Microsoft
Oracle
SAP

Big Shots
Well-positioned, large vendors in healthy sectors.
Adobe
BEA
CA
EMC
Intuit
Symantec

Specialists
Vendors with deep expertise and a strong market position.
Autodesk
Blackbaud
Business Objects
Cognos
Hyperion Solutions
Informatica
Lawson Software
Sybase
Tibco Software

New Big 5
The most powerful offshore IT services providers in the world.
Cognizant Technology Solutions
Infosys Technologies Ltd.
Satyam Computer Svcs.
Tata Consultancy Services
Wipro Ltd.

New Agers
Next-generation vendors leveraging new technologies and models.
Red Hat
RightNow Technologies
Salesforce.com
Taleo
WebEx Communications